Paul Depodesta Talks About Sabermetrics

Paul Depodesta is currently the Vice President of Player Development and Scouting for the New York Mets. He was a central figure in the movie Moneyball, but the name Peter Brand was used instead. His role in sabermetrics has been very influential and he is respected throughout the sabermetric community.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #7

The seventh sabermetrics stat he mentions is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)

Formula: (HR x 13 + (BB + HBP – IBB) x 3 – K x 2) / IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2).

Goal: Eliminate everything a pitcher can’t control (defense, park effects, bloop singles, etc.) and concentrate on the stuff he can control (strikeouts, walks, homeruns, etc.).

Flaw: Expected FIP (or xFIP) corrects HR/fly ball rate to the expected level. FIP does not.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #6

The sixth sabermetric stat he mentions is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)

Formula: (hits-homeruns) / (at-bats – K’s – HR + sac-flies).

Goal: Measure BABIP to determine whether a pitcher or hitter had good luck or bad luck. In 2009, the major league BABIP average was .299. If a pitcher’s BABIP dipped well below that number, he might have had good luck. If it rose well above that number, he likely had terrible luck. The reverse goes for hitters.

Flaw: Too many variables can determine a hitter’s BABIP. Good for pitchers.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #5

The fifth sabermetric stat he mentions is WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

Formula: Once again, really complicated. Go here for more information.

Goal: Take VORP to the next level by incorporating defense, then figure out exactly how many wins someone is worth (his WAR value).

Flaws: Assumes talent between the leagues is always equal. Also, WAR doesn’t work nearly as well for pitchers.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #4

The fourth sabermetric stat he mentions is VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)

Formula: Again, really complicated. Go here for more information.

Goal: Figure out someone’s “value over replacement player” by weighing his ability to create run (for hitters) or create outs (for pitchers) against the worst possible player who conceivably could have played the position (the replacement player, defined as someone who’s 75-85 percent as good as the most average player in the league depending on position.).

Flaw: Doesn’t incorporate defense.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #3

The third sabermetric stat he mentions is UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating):

Formula: Really complicated go here for more information

Goal: To calculate the batted balls cost or saved in each of those 64 zones during the course of the season, then determine each fielder's efficiency from his cost/saved total versus what it should have been. Ascreator Mitchel Lichtman says, UZR is "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined."

Flaw: A tendency for wile fluctuations in the year-to-year data.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #2

The second sabermetric stat he mentions is Adjusted OPS (OPS-plus)

Formula: 100 x [(OBP/park-adjusted league OBP)+(slugging/park-adjusted league slugging)-1]

Goal: Adjust a player's OPS, including the effects of his home ballpark, so it makes sense in the context of that specific season/era

Flaws: More complicated than it lets on; gets into murky territory with the whole "adjusting for parks" thing.

2011 Nation League MVP has an OPS+ of 166 last year.

Bill Simmons Fun Sabermetric Statistics #1

Recently, when searching the web for articles about sabermetrics I came across one from ESPN's own Bill Simmons. The whole article can be accessed here. It gives a good amount of information on some of the various sabermetric statistics. It points out the formula for the statistic, the goal of the statistic, and the flaw of the statistic. It also gives Bill Simmons' translation and take on the statistic, but I do not find that important for this blog post. I will be posting these Sabermetric Statistics as separate blog posts.

The first sabermetric stat is OPS:

Formula: on-base percentage plus slugging percentage

Goal: Capture a player’s ability to get on base and hit for power in a simple way so he can be compared to every other player.

Flaw: Besides weighing on-base and slugging the same ("OBP [the ability of a hitter not to make outs] is far more important than SLG, since baseball is completely governed by outs"), there are times when the results just look dead wrong. Like Milton Bradley leading the AL in OPS in 2008, or Ichiro ranking 45th that season even though he had 213 hits and stole 43 of 47 bases (so clearly, he had SOME offensive value).